Derivates is a ticking time bomb. The next crash should be called "The derivatives crash". I've already mentioned it here - the world wealth is... comparable to the total world derivative exposure. Derivatives are often unreported and unregulated.
Here is an explanation of why dollars don't exist, and the guvmt doesn't even print money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhPvVdZCNJk
Dollars don't exist because they are a unit of measure. Centimeters don't exist either, you can't have too many (or not enough) centimeters to e.g. build a house.
Well, I'm way too late on this, demonstrating a failure of focus on my part, and an example of how politics must not be ignored, when looking at finance. NVDA is going psychotically up not because they have such a great business (although they do), and not because economic conditions precipitate asset price increases (they don't), but because the US guvmt gave NVDA free unlimited money in 2022. Since the world seems always to be in a state of war, there is a current skirmish in which the US wants to internalize and usurp the semiconductor industry. So they give NVDA free unlimited money.
^ 0 days, 100.0 is the start of a recession (we know it exactly b/c it's looking at historical data). Leading to a recession, everyone and everything is hurting. At the start of the recession, the stock market is hurting some more.
This chart (from the video) shows that the only net buyers of stocks since 2008 are corporations themselves (ie it's a scammy pump and dump, but without the dump).
In my understanding, more (or positive) means good, more defensive for actual economy. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia are making okay political decisions here. The USA is still playing into pockets of the rich, keeping real interest rates barely above zero. Argentina is doing abysmally poorly. (Again, this is my understanding, I could be wrong.)
Ah, found it! There is a yield curve inversion that's supposedly more accurate in predicting the oncoming recession, than the 10yr-3mo ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M/ ) curve inversion. The more accurate one is the "Near Term Forward Spread", described as "difference between the expected 3-month interest rate 18-months from now minus the current 3-month yield." Interactive chart is available here, below zero means inverted aka recession imminent: https://www.neartermforwardspread.com/
⚠️ So, there is an interesting question as to "when?!?!" will all the things happen. When will the economy finally collapse? Or the other way around: when will it melt-up? There are two interesting statistics to look at, for answers. One is the inversion of the yield curve. This is a fundamental concept; inversion of the yield curve is a very accurate predictor of financial crises, and the guvm't itself considers it the #1 predictor.
As you may have seen on the news, the 2008-style government bailout of banks has arrived. In contrast to the financial crisis of 2008, this time they are making the bailout look like not-bailout. The technical term they came up with is BTFP, Bank Term Funding Program, which is a bailout by another name.
