⚠️ So, there is an interesting question as to "when?!?!" will all the things happen. When will the economy finally collapse? Or the other way around: when will it melt-up? There are two interesting statistics to look at, for answers. One is the inversion of the yield curve. This is a fundamental concept; inversion of the yield curve is a very accurate predictor of financial crises, and the guvm't itself considers it the #1 predictor.

10yr-3mo is the simple good one: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M/ and is creaming right now that we're in a recession, or fast approaching one. Below zero means inverted.

Another important statistic, and the one I want to specifically point out, is the interest rates. We should all know by now that when interest rates are high, nothing good happens, to the point of central banks failing, commercial banks failing, investment banks failing, and taking the entire economy with them. The FED cannot raise rates too high! They would bankrupt themselves if they do. And what happens when the rates are forced to go lower? A melt-up happens. Capital has to go somewhere, and it goes into the stock market. Asset prices get inflated. If you are an investor, you may try to move into stocks before this happens. If you are a trader, you may wanna keep a lookout for the market melting up and moving against you.

This here tool, gives you probabilities of rate hikes (interest rates), based on where money has moved already. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html And it says, market participants are pricing in ("expecting") rate decreases by the end of the year, with 97% probability. And rate decreases by 2024, with 100% probability. What does that mean? To me this means, I'm expecting stock prices to *melt up*.

Of course, the stock market is leading, not lagging, so you expect it to move *before* rates actually lower. Currently, it says rates may lower in september/november, but markets may be adjusting to this already, 5 months ahead of schedule. I focus on technology. $META reported earnings yesterday and popped 13%. $NVDA, my ex-darling, is at all-time highs. QQQ, the tech index, is doing well. And just for completeness, some non-tech: Coca-cola is doing well. Lowe's which is like Home Center, is also doing well.

The point I'm trying to make is that I'm expecting a melt-up, an increase in stock market prices, in 2023 and 2024. I'm expecting this to happen *while* people suffer and a world-wide recession sets in.

... and the guvm't continues unlawfully bailing out rich people. Chase's acquisition of First Republic Bank was illegal. Also - and this one is a shocker - banks can be allowed to fail! The uninsured deposits are the millionaires holding their stash. The poor people, who are FDIC-insured only up to $250K, are the ones footing the bill for the millionaires.