^ 0 days, 100.0 is the start of a recession (we know it exactly b/c it's looking at historical data). Leading to a recession, everyone and everything is hurting. At the start of the recession, the stock market is hurting some more. Gold (which is a commodity) and other commodities seem to do well after the onset (but not before).

^ historically speaking, unemployment hits the peak 18 months after inversion of the yield curve. We are half-way thru this process: the yield curve inverted 9 months ago.