Trading Lounge

Well, I'm way too late on this, demonstrating a failure of focus on my part, and an example of how politics must not be ignored, when looking at finance. NVDA is going psychotically up not because they have such a great business (although they do), and not because economic conditions precipitate asset price increases (they don't), but because the US guvmt gave NVDA free unlimited money in 2022. Since the world seems always to be in a state of war, there is a current skirmish in which the US wants to internalize and usurp the semiconductor industry. So they give NVDA free unlimited money.

^ 0 days, 100.0 is the start of a recession (we know it exactly b/c it's looking at historical data). Leading to a recession, everyone and everything is hurting. At the start of the recession, the stock market is hurting some more.

This chart (from the video) shows that the only net buyers of stocks since 2008 are corporations themselves (ie it's a scammy pump and dump, but without the dump).

In my understanding, more (or positive) means good, more defensive for actual economy. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia are making okay political decisions here. The USA is still playing into pockets of the rich, keeping real interest rates barely above zero. Argentina is doing abysmally poorly. (Again, this is my understanding, I could be wrong.)

Ah, found it! There is a yield curve inversion that's supposedly more accurate in predicting the oncoming recession, than the 10yr-3mo ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M/ ) curve inversion. The more accurate one is the "Near Term Forward Spread", described as "difference between the expected 3-month interest rate 18-months from now minus the current 3-month yield." Interactive chart is available here, below zero means inverted aka recession imminent: https://www.neartermforwardspread.com/