Warroom

^ 0 days, 100.0 is the start of a recession (we know it exactly b/c it's looking at historical data). Leading to a recession, everyone and everything is hurting. At the start of the recession, the stock market is hurting some more.

This chart (from the video) shows that the only net buyers of stocks since 2008 are corporations themselves (ie it's a scammy pump and dump, but without the dump).

In my understanding, more (or positive) means good, more defensive for actual economy. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia are making okay political decisions here. The USA is still playing into pockets of the rich, keeping real interest rates barely above zero. Argentina is doing abysmally poorly. (Again, this is my understanding, I could be wrong.)

Ah, found it! There is a yield curve inversion that's supposedly more accurate in predicting the oncoming recession, than the 10yr-3mo ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M/ ) curve inversion. The more accurate one is the "Near Term Forward Spread", described as "difference between the expected 3-month interest rate 18-months from now minus the current 3-month yield." Interactive chart is available here, below zero means inverted aka recession imminent: https://www.neartermforwardspread.com/

⚠️ So, there is an interesting question as to "when?!?!" will all the things happen. When will the economy finally collapse? Or the other way around: when will it melt-up? There are two interesting statistics to look at, for answers. One is the inversion of the yield curve. This is a fundamental concept; inversion of the yield curve is a very accurate predictor of financial crises, and the guvm't itself considers it the #1 predictor.